Ukrainian energy workers will be able to prepare around 14-15 GW of generating capacity by early December 2024, considering the restored generation, leaving the energy system with an expected deficit of about 4 GW, which cannot be fully covered by imports.
This was stated by Sviatoslav Pavliuk, Executive Director of the Association of Energy-Efficient Cities of Ukraine (AEEC), during the discussion "Keeping the Lights On: The Battle for Ukraine's Power Grid."
“This (generation deficit) amounts to up to 20% of production. This is actually an optimistic scenario,” he said.
According to Pavliuk, after the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine's energy system in 2023 had 18 GW of available capacity, but after a series of massive enemy attacks on the energy infrastructure starting in March 2024, operational capacity was reduced to about 10 GW by July.
Currently, the key foundation of production in Ukraine's energy system is three nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity of up to 8 GW. However, some energy units cannot operate at full load due to equipment malfunctions. In addition, about 50% of hydropower plants, which had a total installed capacity of up to 6 GW before the war, have been damaged.
As of August, the available capacity of thermal power plants and cogeneration facilities reached 5.5 GW.
In the renewable energy sector, Ukraine lost 80% of wind farm capacities and 20% of solar farm capacities in the occupied territories.
“In general, we are approaching this heating season in a situation where all generation on the left bank of the country has largely been destroyed, suspended, or damaged, and it is not operational. Meanwhile, the east of the country is heavily dependent on the transmission system. Therefore, the functionality of the transmission system is absolutely critical to cope with the challenges of the heating season,” commented the executive director.
