The British analytical center RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) says NATO is increasingly preparing for a possible military confrontation with Russia, raising defense spending and examining scenarios of conflict escalation in Europe over the coming years.
Key points:
Based on its public statements, the Kremlin appears to be pursuing three parallel tracks: the war against Ukraine, relations with the United States, and a potential confrontation with NATO.
This approach allows Russia to simultaneously strike Ukrainian cities, accuse the West of organizing Ukrainian operations, and maintain the possibility of negotiations with Washington.
After the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska in August 2025, Russian officials repeatedly referred to the so-called “spirit of Anchorage,” although no documents were signed and no concrete agreements were reached at the summit.
In practice, the term became a convenient reference to alleged understandings whose content each side could interpret differently.
By the summer of 2026, Russian rhetoric had changed significantly — Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began accusing the United States of abandoning its previous approach, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia’s operation in Ukraine had turned into a war due to the direct involvement of Western countries.
Particularly significant was Peskov’s warning that Moscow would consider countries whose territory could be used for Ukrainian strikes against Russia as legitimate targets.
So far, this does not indicate preparations for a specific operation against NATO, but it expands the Kremlin’s public narrative about whom it may accuse of involvement in the war and against whom it could seek to justify future strikes.
However, despite the escalation in rhetoric, Russia may still be leaving room for dialogue with the United States — although the issues Moscow wants to discuss may not be the same issues Washington itself wants to address.
