Well — as I’ve already written, Putin is preparing for a final battle, and it seems he has decided to fight it on all fronts. Recent events more or less reveal the contours of his plan.
- Raising the stakes
So, while the West shows its fear of a potential clash with Russia, Putin has decided to exploit that fear to his own advantage. The provocations in Poland and Estonia are a new tactic. The aim is to demonstrate that the West’s refusal of his “peace plan” (ceding the Donbas and freezing the line) could lead to a global war. The provocations are also his response to attempts to increase sanctions pressure on oil. The goal is to shift the focus away from sanctions and support for Ukraine and toward peace talks — “or else, a large war.”
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Blackout
Although previous attempts to create widespread blackouts failed, I see that this year Putin will spare no effort. And I think he has a good chance of success. A blackout is also part of the final battle: the destruction of the rear. Clearly, winter blackouts would inflict severe damage on us and further demoralize people who are already holding on by a thread. The objective is to make Putin’s demands acceptable to an exhausted population.
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Breakthrough in the Donbas
A breakthrough on the front is now the occupiers’ main task. For this purpose, the Russian army is beginning to expend manpower on an unprecedented scale. This confirms again that Putin is going all in, understanding that he is unlikely to be able to continue at the same pace he has the past two years. The goal of a breakthrough is to demoralize our troops and leadership and force them to accept his terms.
So — intimidate our partners with provocations, demoralize the population with blackouts, demoralize the military with a frontline breakthrough — that is Putin’s new formula for reaching his objectives.
