"Any victorious scenario must include the following components, and all, not just one:
1. High combat spirit. Anyone involved in martial arts knows that defeat begins in the mind. Once a fighter starts to entertain thoughts of losing, they've already lost. This leads to a loss of motivation, physical strength, and the dominance of fear. This is precisely what is happening to us now. Can combat spirit be lifted? Yes. To do this, we need to fundamentally change our information policy.
2. Mobilization of an additional 200,000 troops. This is my estimate, and I believe it is sufficient to stop the orcs for one to two years. Mobilization is specifically for defense, not for new major offensives from our side.
3. Stable Western assistance. Finally receiving all the necessary weapons without delays and political games.
4. Sanctions, truly effective sanctions. Every day, numerous reports surface on how Putin circumvents sanctions. It's long overdue to impose secondary sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies working in the West for gaining a non-competitive advantage through sanctioned Russian oil.
If these four components are present, then the victorious scenario will look as follows. We repel new major offensives, inflicting colossal losses on the Russian army. After this, we don't launch our major counter-offensive but continue to push back the orcs on the front lines without major breakthroughs. The goal is to continue inflicting losses, even if they stop attacking, but without sustaining significant losses ourselves. In parallel with this, together with the West, drop a real "iron curtain." Isolating Putin must become total. If Putin wants to make Russia like North Korea, fine, but then they should live like in North Korea.
Under these circumstances, in 2-3 years, Russia will collapse because the strain from military actions and colossal sanctions will ruin the economy. Putin is old and has no successor, which will be additional factors for internal transformations in Russia. I don't believe he will find a successor because the entire system he built depends solely on him.
Russia falls into an internal crisis from which it cannot emerge without Western assistance. Peace negotiations begin, through which they withdraw from Ukraine, condemn Putin's crimes, and pay reparations. In return, sanctions are lifted, and they are allowed back to the international table.
All other scenarios, unfortunately, are even more fantastical."
