On 24 February 2025, the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy (YES) held a conversation with Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, on the occasion of the YES Special Gathering in Kyiv “Three Years — Time to Win” , dedicated to the third anniversary of Ukraine's resistance to the full-scale invasion of Russia. Politicians and experts discussed strategies for securing Ukraine in a changing world.
Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence of the Netherlands (2022-2024), YES Board Member, moderated the discussion.
"We have marked the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, and in fact, the 11th anniversary of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the Russians have not managed to achieve their goal yet. Has Russia's strategic goal changed? Unfortunately, the answer is still "No". I think, this objective will never change. The Russian Federation does not see itself as a federation, it sees itself as an empire," Budanov said.
Budanov is convinced that Russia will not stop until it achieves this strategic goal.
"An empire needs at least three states to exist: Russia, which is there, Belarus, which is partially there, and what’s missing is Ukraine. Without it the existence of the Russian empire is impossible. Any expert on Russia will confirm this. That is why it will not stop and will do everything to take over Ukraine by military, political, non-political, and some internal social means. It needs the entire territory and the entire population, it needs our factories. Without us, the empire will be void. That is why their strategic goal is unchanged," Budanov said.
He assured that the Russian leadership is leaning towards the USSR model in its imperial ambitions, but with the countries of the so-called Warsaw Pact.
"Assuming the worst-case scenario, Poland will be next, I'm telling you that directly. And you don't need to be afraid of it, you need to be aware of it. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria will follow. The Warsaw Pact states are, as they say, a required minimum for an empire to be formed. And they will play it by ear from that. Sorry," Budanov added.
Today, he said, Russia, having failed to achieve its goal in the war against Ukraine, is seeking a pause to recover, work on its mistakes and continue to pursue its strategic goal.
"I won't say anything like Russia is failing, that everything is going bad for them. This is not true. They are moving forward. This progress is not huge and insufficient to achieve their strategic goal, so they need a break. They need a break to regain their strength, to work on mistakes. To try to destabilize the situation here, in the country, and then they will have a new window of opportunity to achieve their strategic goal," Budanov opined.
The intelligence chief also commented on the prospect of ceasefire and securing peace in 2025:
"I believe in the ceasefire. As for a sustainable and long-lasting peace, I will leave it hanging, but let it be my personal opinion. My reasoning is very simple: Russia’s strategic goal has remained unchanged, and right now it cannot achieve this goal. So, it is obvious that it will continue to look for ways to achieve it. It will use all methods of work: hybrid threats, which can eventually turn into an armed conflict at any point. However, I believe in the ceasefire, it is absolutely realistic."
