Journalist and political scientist about why Russia and Belarus are not the same.
“I believe that everything in Belarus will be a little easier in the future than in Russia, for one simple reason: Belarus made it clear that it is dissatisfied with the dictatorship in its country, we have seen hundreds of thousands of people. And this is important: Belarus has demonstrated that the majority of people do not agree with the current regime and oppose it.
Now many are arguing about the situation in which the citizens of Russia are: hostages, accomplices, or someone else.
And in this sense, it is more difficult to believe that all Russians are radically against Putin; they are just afraid, because in Belarus, we saw this giant wave, and this is not an exaggeration, that is, very many people, one can even say with confidence, the majority there are against Lukashenko and voted for Tikhanovskaya.
And they came out, and they were suppressed. Lukashenko had to suppress people, but this was not the case in Russia. No, there was, of course, a considerable amount, but incomparable in scale, let's be honest, rather within the framework of statistical error.
And therefore, in the world's perception, Belarus and Belarusians are still Lukashenko's hostages. Concerning Russia, there is no such perception. And in this sense, the reverse integration of Belarus into the world community seems to me much easier.
At the same time, the political scientist believes that in the future, the Russian leadership will also have to come to terms with the European choice of the Belarusians.
“Before the start of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin was an actor who made decisions, and a lot depended on what he decides.
But since 2023, when they ask me how long Putin will continue this war, I already say that it does not depend on Putin. He is no longer a decision-maker. He is a person who reacts.
Therefore, what he wants there - to keep or not to keep Belarus, who plans what to do with it - they take on a lot.
Russia will most likely lose in this war. Therefore it will not have the opportunity to make decisions on Belarus, especially since, at least formally, Belarus continues to be an independent country. But in the future, Russia will not have a legal reason to do something with Belarus.
Belarus is an independent country, in many respects a pro-European country, with people who showed that they were not happy with the dictatorship and tried to fight it.
In this sense, Belarus is not Russia, these are two completely different states, with two different paths. And it seems strange to me to perceive them as one country, especially now in the context of 2023.
This is strange both from the point of view of moral and adequate and from the point of view of the possibilities to do this. Even if someone has a desire, I think there will be no opportunities anyway,"- Michael Nacke believes.
