Russian ammunition depots are nearly depleted, according to satellite images published by OSINT researcher Just BeCause.
The researcher sought to verify recent media claims that only 30% of the munitions used by Russia are produced domestically, with the rest being imported from North Korea and Iran. Based on this analysis, if this claim is true, Russia should have exhausted all Soviet-era munitions that had been upgraded to an acceptable level. Nearly everything currently produced would have to be made from scratch, requiring more time.
The researcher compared satellite images of Russian arsenals from before the full-scale invasion to the most recent images available. Many depots show clear signs of depletion. Specifically, the 1819th artillery ammunition depot was estimated to be 90% empty by September 2024, the 2719th depot completely empty, and signs of depletion are also evident in images of the 1215th depot from the same period.
The 73rd GRAU arsenal, which has many underground storage facilities, also shows significant depletion in open storage areas, and arsenal #100 is nearly empty. While no recent satellite images are available for arsenal #7, images from two years ago already showed a decline in its stockpiles. Arsenal #51 is not entirely empty, but shows much less activity than two years ago.
Meanwhile, ammunition storage sites closer to the Ukrainian border remain active, likely due to imports from North Korea, which are then transferred for transport to the front lines.
Earlier estimates by researchers HighMarsed, Jompy, and Covert Cabal indicate that Russia has withdrawn over 8,000 artillery pieces from storage, excluding mortars. Assuming that the Russian Armed Forces have been firing an average of 20,000 shells per day since the start of the full-scale war, they likely lost around 6,000 barrels to wear, amounting to around 18 million shells used by mid-2024.
Just BeCause estimates that Russia produces 3-4.3 million shells per year, enough to sustain a firing rate of 8-12 thousand shells per day, which is insufficient for its needs. Thus, North Korean support is critical for Russia to continue the war against Ukraine. Although artillery depletion in Russia’s armed forces is significant, they may have enough for another two years, as many more artillery pieces have been reactivated compared to tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
