These are separate negotiations about the betrayal of Ukraine (essentially about the terms of its capitulation and the scale and legitimization of Russian annexation). Europe, against this background, is bleating something completely helpless, and in this sense, yes, the resemblance to Munich is depressing. This is further emphasized by Zelensky’s presence somewhere on the sidelines — in Munich there was also a Czechoslovak delegation, which was not invited to the negotiations and was invited only to be announced about the annexation of the Sudetenland.
The difference is that there will be no Munich now, because Germany stood on the borders of Czechoslovakia ready to capture it in a few days, whereas now Russia in the fourth year cannot militarily seize the devastated Donbas, so they needed the help of a whole Trump. And Ukraine is increasingly effectively striking Russia from the air, paralyzing transport and war infrastructure. And Zelensky cannot afford capitulation: Ukraine will not allow it.
But morally, it’s all the same: a completely shameful analogue of Munich is being prepared.
“Of course, one can phrase it diplomatically, like: ‘EU leaders call to ALLOW Ukraine into the negotiations,’ or one can call things by their real names, even if only in print for now:
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No matter how you spin it, so far this looks more like Trump folding than Putin. As I already wrote, the ceasefire issue has been swept under the rug, and the meeting of the US and Russian leaders, which Putin has long sought and the US long avoided, is now announced. If by Friday there is no “POLITE” reciprocal move from Putin, then formally the Alaska summit will begin for Trump in a PR-negative zone. Maybe, and even most likely, he will get out of it later (if the meeting outcome contradicts all forecasts — this happens with Trump), but until Friday he will remain with a negative public balance.
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The meeting between Putin and Trump is a SEPARATE negotiation, that is, negotiations deliberately and by design directed against their own allies and conducted at their expense. The content of these negotiations is in any case BETRAYAL of Ukraine’s interests, at least as they were previously understood under Biden. The scale in this sense does not matter much — it can vary, but it doesn’t change the essence. Talks about Zelensky joining the meeting are thus an oxymoron. They will talk to him only if a deal is made, and then afterwards.
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In one form or another, Trump and Putin intend to discuss the CAPITULATION of Ukraine, no matter how pretty words their PR teams come up with (“territory exchanges” and so on). Of course, it matters whether it is total capitulation or partial, and if partial, on what terms. But the meaning of the meeting does not change: two leaders without Ukraine’s participation decided to meet to discuss what form of its capitulation and in what volume suits them personally. The compromise in their understanding is an agreement on what part of Ukraine they personally consider reasonable and sufficient to alienate.
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In the configuration as announced today, Ukraine can have no reaction other than complete REJECTION. In this sense, despite my criticism of Zelensky on many other positions, I cannot blame him for his sharp statement. The proposal to voluntarily withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the fortified areas of Donbas is so dangerous and humiliating that it can be accepted not when a gun is held to your temple, but only when the shot has already been fired to the head.
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Europe in this whole story has so far demonstrated only that it is not a subject of political action, because the only action that could prevent a Putin-Trump collusion now can only be a complete replacement of America as a financial donor and arms supplier for Ukraine. Talking about it is not action. For two days Europe has demonstrated outright HELPLESSNESS
What kind of forecast can there be? The withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the fortified areas of Donbas is political suicide for Zelensky. He can only take this step on the condition that Western armies’ proxies are introduced into Ukraine — and that is suicide for Putin. Let’s get some popcorn and watch who will kill themselves first. And only Trump will win in any scenario: either the Nobel Prize or nicely “washed hands” (like — I’m tired, I’m leaving you, fight as long as you want, I promise you nothing more).
