Russia is nearing the completion of its de facto annexation of Belarus, and if current trends continue, this process will conclude within the next decade, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) titled "Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus." ISW experts warn that Moscow’s actions pose a strategic threat to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine.
The report outlines how the Kremlin is finalizing a long-term strategy to transform Belarus into a tool for bolstering its military and economic capabilities. The document highlights that Russia seeks to use Belarus to achieve its geopolitical objectives aimed at countering the U.S. and NATO.
Analysts note that Russia’s efforts to annex Belarus under the framework of the Union State have already achieved significant progress. This development requires NATO countries to reassess their strategies and resources, as Moscow could utilize Belarus as a base for military operations against NATO and Ukraine.
The report states that Belarus is evolving from being a mere ally of Russia to effectively becoming an extension of it. Moscow is leveraging its influence in Belarus to offset the costs of the war against Ukraine, accelerate recovery from combat losses, and prepare for future conflicts.
ISW asserts that Russia aims to establish a federal government within the Union State where it will hold dominant control. This includes full authority over Belarusian armed forces during peacetime, permanent stationing of Russian troops in Belarus, and the creation of a unified economic system with shared markets, legislation, and currency.
The report emphasizes that this process threatens Belarus’s existence as an independent state. Russia’s military presence in Belarus is expanding, enabling the Kremlin to use Belarusian territory for troop deployments against NATO and Ukraine.
Experts caution that NATO must prepare for a scenario in which Belarus falls completely under Russian control, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Such control would provide Moscow with additional opportunities to project power and escalate aggression.
The report also notes that even if Ukraine achieves victory with Western support, Russia will continue pursuing its strategy to annex Belarus, creating new security challenges for NATO and Eastern European nations.
Experts urge Western countries to revise their approaches to defending NATO’s eastern flank and supporting Ukraine, taking into account the growing threat from Russia.
