Lithuanian military intelligence has reported that, according to its data, around 30,000 troops from Belarus and Russia will take part in the “Zapad-2025” military exercises, Delfi reports.
“According to our intelligence, up to 30,000 Belarusian and Russian servicemen will participate in the exercises. Only 8,000 of them will be stationed in Belarus, including just 2,000 Russian soldiers,” said Mindaugas Mažonas, head of the Second Department of Operational Services (VDOS), during the “Week” program on LRT television.
He added that although the likelihood of hybrid attacks against Lithuania during these drills is “minimal,” isolated provocations cannot be ruled out.
“Currently, the probability of hybrid attacks is very low. However, during any exercises, incidents are possible — such as violations of airspace and, potentially, minor cyber incidents,” Mažonas noted.
According to him, the chances that Russia could use the “Zapad” exercises to disguise actions against another country in the region or to draw Belarus into a large-scale invasion of Ukraine are “really very small.”
