Putin’s main international objective for the next six to nine months is to undermine EU funding for Ukraine. Without approximately $70 billion in external assistance, we will have nowhere to obtain the necessary funds.
1. In the coming days and weeks, Putin will intensify hybrid attacks against the EU. I have written about this before and will simply repeat: drones, explosives and large-scale information campaigns are the new “terrorist normal” for the EU. And the number of countries where such methods are used will expand.
2. Against the backdrop of these attacks and a sharp rise in fuel prices, particularly diesel, Russia will invest heavily in a major information campaign built around the message: “Enough funding Ukraine.”
In fact, the next six to twelve months will become the EU’s greatest test since 2022.
But the sociological situation is now fundamentally different. Public support for Ukraine is significantly lower, while the electoral risks for Ukraine following the elections in France and the possibility of early elections in Germany are considerably higher.
3. The collapse of the financial coalition supporting Ukraine would not yet mean complete failure, but it would certainly trigger an enormous crisis for the EU as an entity that, despite everything, has so far remained bound together by certain values. If this happens, then, after a relatively short time lag, it will lead to the fragmentation of the EU as a values-based political entity.
And this, as we understand, is not only Putin’s idée fixe but also falls within the interests of China and Donald Trump. Putin will therefore have considerable room for manoeuvre in this regard.
4. As for a conventional war in Europe — in the Baltic states — everything depends on whether Germany and Poland are prepared to fight. And, incidentally, on Le Pen’s position.
Answering the question, “What happens if Russia attacks Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia?” first requires answering another question: “Will Poland and Germany come to their defence, and would such an attack change Le Pen’s party’s position towards Russia?”
As for nuclear blackmail, it is just that — blackmail. Russia will not launch a nuclear missile.
5. And now, as far as Ukraine is concerned. We need to build a new negotiating coalition. Without it, we are losing precious time. This is our main task for the coming weeks, not months.
