Alexander Kovalenko: Partial mobilization in Russia has a beginning, but no end
Having sent the mobilized into the meat grinder of the war, the Russians did not achieve any success or stabilization. This was stated by the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko.
On October 28, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, reporting on the partial mobilization, stated that out of 300,000 called up, 87,000 people were already in the combat zone in Ukraine.
On October 31, Putin verbally, without signing a decree, announced the completion of partial mobilization, saying that 300,000 people had been called up, of which 260,000 were already being trained.
On November 4, Vladimir Putin announced that the partial mobilization plan had been overfulfilled, namely, 318 thousand people were called up, of which 49 thousand are already in the combat zone, and the rest, 269 thousand, are being trained.
“As you can see, the figures were always different for the officials of the occupying country, but according to the information available at that time, as part of the partial mobilization, they managed to attract a little more than 230 thousand people, but not 300 thousand,” Kovalenko said.
In turn, the dynamics of the losses began to grow sharply precisely from September – the beginning of partial mobilization, which indicated that a large number of untrained military personnel were sent to the database zone.
The total increase from September to November in the irretrievable losses amounted to almost 20 thousand people. The estimated increase in sanitary losses could be 30-40 thousand. That is, the total losses of mobilized during this period amount to 50-60 thousand people.
“In other words, a quarter of those are actually partially called. At the same time, Let’s not forget to compensate for losses and maintain the combat capability of units. In the zone of combat duty, there should be as many personnel as have departed to maintain the combat capability of the units. Roughly speaking, 120 thousand.
But, these 120 thousand is a lost and compensating resource, and in addition, one should take into account the one that was during this time, or received as compensation for losses not included in the increase through partially mobilized, but the resource formed before them.”
In other words, between 150,000 and 180,000 partially mobilized people should have passed through the combat zone in Ukraine, with all the ensuing consequences. Taking into account, the mobilized located in Russia and Belarus while at the training grounds, we conclude that today they have exhausted their compensatory potential.
“What does it mean? And this means that partial mobilization in Russia has a beginning but no end. But the main thing is that by sending this mass into a meat grinder, the enemy did not achieve any success or stabilization but, on the contrary, it only worsened their position in the combat duty zone,” emphasised Kovalenko