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Alexey Kushch: Europe will significantly lose its influence on the global economy

28 Apr, 2024
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Alexey Kushch: Europe will significantly lose its influence on the global economy

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By Alexey Kushch

"One of the indicators of country ranking is GDP based on purchasing power parity (GDP at PPP).

According to IMF estimates, by 2029, there will be a reshuffling of countries in the top ten.

The top five looks almost standard: China, the USA, India, Japan.

But suddenly, Indonesia bursts into the fifth place, pushing Germany and Russia down a notch.

There are also changes in the second five: Turkey breaks into it, joining Britain and Brazil.

These three countries are expected to have approximately equal GDP at PPP - just over 2 trillion dollars.

If we consider this indicator in the context of per capita income, the result is even more fantastic: with approximately equal population sizes, both Britain and Turkey will have identical per capita gross domestic product at purchasing power parity.

And by 2029, France will leave the top 10 altogether.

An interesting geopolitical transformation is unfolding: China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Japan, and one could say Russia, represent Asia, accounting for six out of ten countries.

Britain and Germany represent Europe. Only two countries, and from the EU, just one.

The USA and Brazil represent both Americas.

Developing countries make up six out of ten.

In terms of clusters:

BRICS - four out of ten countries,

EU - one country.

ASEAN Asian bloc - one country.

North American Free Trade Area - one country.

Turkic Council - one country.

British Union - also one.

Russia is not only part of BRICS but also the EAEU, while Brazil is also part of the Latin American Mercosur.

It can be said that the balance of geopolitical power will change significantly by 2029, primarily due to the EU.

Europe will significantly lose its influence on the global economy.

Turkey will likely abandon its illusions of joining the EU and focus on the Turkic project.

Latin America is in a sideways trend and the middle-income trap.

At the top are the USA and China, the former in nominal terms, the latter in PPP.

Germany will manage to hold on to the top 10.

In the context of declining economic weight, more concern should be placed on Britain and France than on Germany.

A new tiger will emerge - Indonesia.

By the way, a country that timely bid farewell to the IMF, the monetary mainstream of the central bank, and external advice.

Despite sanctions, Russia will remain in the top 10, although it will not make it into the top five (Putin's task, set by the government).

By 2039, I predict the emergence of another growth leader in terms of GDP at PPP - Nigeria.

It could well enter the top ten, displacing either Brazil or Britain.

Japan will still have its say. In any case, this is my "self-fulfilling expectation." The devaluation of the yen and monetary stimulus have triggered a growth mechanism within it."

The Odessa Journal

The Odessa Journal

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