Russia failed the plan to occupy Ukraine. Now there is panic in the Kremlin, because there is no "Plan B". The elites openly declare that Russia's course is crazy, the war must be ended, and repressions have begun in the special services.
Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev stated this in an interview with the Navalny Live YouTube channel.
Grozev emphasized that his previous forecasts regarding the war were justified. Russia failed "Plan A", which called for military action for a maximum of 10 days, and there is no new plan. This is evidenced by the lack of a second echelon of troops that could make up for losses and prolong the war at the same pace and the lack of food, water, and fuel supplies for those militaries who are now on the territory of Ukraine.
The Russians are happy to retreat, but they are thwarted by the so-called Kadyrov's barrage units, who have been ordered to shoot at the deserters, and, on the other hand, by Ukrainian troops who are ready to attack in the rear.
There will be no quick exit, so it is important to understand what is happening inside the Kremlin's elite, the special services, which have now accepted and understood that it has been proven that" plan A "has failed. There is a standby mode. Changes are daily, which do not indicate a new strategy
Christo Grozev
Kremlin sources confirmed to Grozev the arrest of the head of the 5th FSB service, Colonel-General Sergei Besedin, who was in charge of foreign intelligence, in particular in Ukraine. The FSB also began repressions.
I don't see the situation in the Kremlin, which indicates that the war will continue in a week or two. There will be a shift, the question is what
Christo Grozev
According to his forecast, Putin has two options:
- reach an agreement with Zelensky on terms that are much more compromising than were originally announced;
- decide to strike at the civilian population with non-conventional weapons in order to force Kyiv to compromise and show their country the result.
Grozev is inclined towards the first option, arguing this with some signals from Erdogan and Zelensky.
I thought it was unbelievable, but the latest signals from Erdogan and Zelensky that suddenly there are opportunities for an agreement indicate that Putin most likely understands the dead end of the situation
The journalist notes that if this is the situation in the Kremlin, then it is in Putin's interests to end the war as quickly as possible. He predicts tangible movement towards a resolution of the conflict in the next two to three days.
