Russia plans to attack the Baltic countries, using the "Zapad-2025" military exercises in Belarus as cover for preparing aggression, Matviy Kupreichik, a representative of BELPOL—a group of former Belarusian security officials opposing the Lukashenko regime—said on Lithuania’s public radio LRT Radioteka.
According to BELPOL, which unites former Belarusian security forces against Lukashenko, the Belarusian regime has been actively involved in the war against Ukraine. Their report, presented during the broadcast, is divided into three parts detailing Belarus’s role before, during, and after Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The first part focuses on preparations for the attack: since late 2021, Belarus has provided its territory, logistics, and intelligence for forming Russian strike groups. The “Union Resolve – 2022” exercises served as a cover to deploy Russian units in Belarus and organize the attack on Ukraine.
BELPOL’s authors state that Belarusian special services, on Kremlin orders, conducted reconnaissance inside Ukraine and shared information on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions. On March 1, 2022, Lukashenko himself acknowledged at a Security Council meeting that Belarus transmitted target coordinates for Russian strikes, including Ukrainian missile system locations.
The report also highlights a disinformation campaign, where Belarusian military officials, including Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, deliberately misled Ukraine into believing there was no threat. Meanwhile, Belarusian units secured the flanks of Russian strike groups.
The second part covers direct Belarusian support during active combat: Belarus provided airfields for Russian air strikes, supplied fuel, ammunition, and medical resources, guarded strategic facilities, and offered radio-technical support. The country also ran extensive war propaganda, suppressed anti-war protests, and arrested activists and resistance supporters, including those assisting the Kalinovsky Regiment.
The authors emphasize that Belarus has become a full-fledged rear base for Russia. State enterprises supplied weapons, ammunition, equipment, and materials. The report also mentions that prisoners, including political prisoner Polina Sharendo-Panasyuk, were used to sew uniforms for Russian troops.
BELPOL claims Lukashenko was fully aware of Kremlin plans and actively facilitated them, making Belarus part of Russia’s military machine.
The "Zapad-2025" exercises are scheduled for September 2025 in Belarus, with over 13,000 troops from Belarus and Russia participating. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense officially states the exercises are defensive, aimed at assessing the coordination and interaction of the two countries’ armed forces.
