Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi suggests that Russia is preparing to advance into the Kharkiv and Sumy regions at the end of May or the beginning of June. According to him, the Russians do not have enough strength to capture Kharkiv or Sumy, but a "hit and run" operation is possible.
This was reported by Vadym Skibitskyi to The Economist.
According to him, the timing of the offensive depends on the strength of Ukrainian defense in Donbas, but he assumes that the main push by Russia will start "at the end of May or the beginning of June."
Skibitskyi says that Russia has a total of 514,000 ground forces engaged in the Ukrainian operation, which exceeds the estimate of 470,000 given last month by NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Christopher Cavoli.
According to the Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Russian northern group, based on the border with Kharkiv, currently consists of 35,000 servicemen, but the occupiers intend to increase it to 50,000-70,000 troops. Russia is also "generating a reserve division" (from 15,000 to 20,000 people) in the central part of Russia, which it can add to its main efforts.
Skibitskyi believes that this is not enough for an operation to capture a large city, but it may be sufficient for a smaller task.
"A quick hit and run operation is possible. But an operation to capture Kharkiv or even the city of Sumy is another matter. The Russians know this. And we know it too," he said.
