Russians are stuck in Donetsk region; since the full-scale invasion, they haven’t achieved the advances they dreamed of.
This opinion was expressed by military expert and former SSU officer (2004–2015) Ivan Stupak on Espreso TV.
“I’ll explain why they (the Russians) are ramping up the situation with the mindset: ‘Let’s get results fast, we need to push now, press harder, and everything will collapse.’ Because for 3.5 years, they have truly been stuck in Donbas. There haven’t been the huge breakthroughs they imagined. There is gradual pressure on Ukrainian defenses, but again: the breakthroughs they dreamed of definitely aren’t happening,” he said.
Stupak noted that part of World War II, from the moment Germany attacked the then-Soviet Union until its end, lasted 1,480 days. By roughly January 2026, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine will have lasted a similar amount of time, and the enemy will want to show at least some victory by then.
“Now I’ll give you some small numbers so you understand what might really trigger them. Overall, in numbers: the ‘Great Patriotic War’ in the Soviet Union lasted 1,480 days. 1,480 — remember this number. That’s when the Soviet Union pushed Nazi Germany from the outskirts of Moscow all the way to central Berlin, and the war ended. Everything took 1,480 days. The current full-scale war has already lasted 1,273 days. During this time, no large district centers were captured, let alone a single regional center of Ukraine. So I think closer to that mark — around January 2026 — the timelines will align. I believe by then they are rushing to show at least something to their population, to present it as an achievement, because the war is lasting uncomfortably long for them. That’s why they insist on quickly surrendering territory to use it as a major accomplishment. They also ramp up the information space: ‘Let’s push harder now, press harder, and Ukrainian defenses will crumble,’” the military expert added.
