In 2025, European news was dominated by reports of hybrid warfare operations, including sabotage, drone incursions, and even attempted political assassinations. Although the overall number of such incidents declined compared to the previous year, experts question whether this represents a tactical pause by the Kremlin or a major strategic shift ahead of 2026, as reported by France24.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has significantly increased covert operations in Europe. While the number of hybrid warfare incidents (excluding drone flights) decreased in 2025 after peaking in 2024, the situation remains highly tense. Experts suggest several explanations for this decline: European intelligence agencies may have become more effective at blocking attacks, or the Kremlin may be seeking to achieve its goals through negotiations with the new U.S. administration, temporarily reducing the intensity of its operations.
One of the most striking and alarming examples was the attempted assassination of human rights defender Vladimir Osechkin, who has lived in France for 10 years after fleeing Russia. On September 12, while preparing dinner with his family in Biarritz, he noticed a small red laser dot moving across the room and ultimately focusing on him. Thanks to his quick reaction, Osechkin and his family managed to dive to the floor and survived. A month later, French authorities charged four individuals from Dagestan with attempted murder. Such “irregular and covert operations” have become a hallmark of Russian strategy. Intelligence services are also suspected of attempting to assassinate the CEO of the German defense company Rheinmetall, which supplies weapons to Ukraine, as well as coordinating the kidnapping of investigative journalist Christo Grozev by a group of Bulgarian citizens in the UK, three of whom have already been convicted of espionage.
Experts from Leiden University in the Netherlands emphasize that a key feature of hybrid operations is their “deniability”—making it impossible to definitively prove who is responsible. In 2025, the spectrum of such actions was extremely wide: from drone incursions at Copenhagen and Oslo airports to sabotage on Polish railways and acts of vandalism, such as placing pig heads near mosques in Paris. All of these actions aim to destabilize European societies, sow division between communities, and ultimately undermine political support for Ukraine.
Analysts note that hybrid warfare is intended to support Russia’s battlefield actions by creating pressure behind enemy lines. Direct threats against business leaders, like the head of Rheinmetall, send a clear message that supporting Ukraine comes at a high cost.
Risks are expected to rise in 2026. Large-scale attacks and influence operations could resume with renewed intensity ahead of key elections in several European countries, including municipal elections in France in 2026 and the presidential election in 2027. Security experts warn that if negotiations between Moscow and Washington fail to deliver the Kremlin’s desired outcome, or if the U.S. withdraws support for Ukraine, leaving Europe isolated, Russia may begin new “tests” of European resolve.
The success of European intelligence services in 2025—such as thwarting attempts to send explosive parcels via DHL—shows that protection is becoming more effective. However, the future will depend on how aggressively the Kremlin chooses to test European democracies over the next two years.
