Russian oil-producing companies sharply reduced crude output in December 2025, recording one of the worst figures in the past eighteen months. Average daily production fell to 9.326 million barrels amid increasing Western sanctions pressure on buyers of Russian crude, which is increasingly paralysing export channels.
The current level is more than 100,000 barrels per day below that of November and almost 250,000 barrels short of the quota set under the OPEC+ agreements. This decline is the largest since June 2024, underscoring the deepening structural problems of the industry rather than temporary fluctuations.
Selling Russian oil abroad is becoming rapidly more difficult. Despite exports from Russian ports remaining at around 4 million barrels per day, growing volumes of crude are left without end buyers. Since late November 2025, the amount of unsold Russian oil—accumulating mainly at sea—has increased by roughly 30 million barrels to 185 million barrels, exacerbating logistical and financial risks for producers.
Another constraining factor is the fall in global oil prices, which sharply reduces the profitability of production. Under such conditions, Russia’s OPEC+ quota of 9.574 million barrels per day will remain unmet: companies have no economic incentive to boost output at current price levels.
Combined, these factors point to the systemic nature of the crisis in Russia’s oil sector. Even if prices stabilise, Russia is unlikely to return quickly to its OPEC+ quotas. This means inevitable losses in foreign-currency revenues and increased pressure on the federal budget in 2026, forcing the Kremlin to compensate through higher tax burdens on other sectors, greater reliance on borrowing, or cuts in investment—steps that will only deepen the degradation of the oil industry.
