The war has not benefited the Putin regime, it is not as powerful as it wants to appear, the economy is failing and Russia's military power has degraded significantly.
Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, made this statement in a rare public appearance at the Annual Meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) - The Future Is Being Decided in Ukraine, organised by YES in partnership with the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.
"The war has not benefited the Putin regime: The economy is failing, and that's a fact. Finances rest on reserves, and military power has been severely decimated during the war. Generally speaking, the professional army ran out last autumn. Now mobilised soldiers are fighting in their army. The production of new weapons and equipment is utterly insufficient," said the Lieutenant General.
Asked if he believes the Russians are adapting to the new types of warfare Ukraine has successfully innovated, he said, “In terms of flexibility, we still have the edge on them. They are rather crusty and dusty and still very vertical – which means they take longer to adapt to changes. The regime is not as strong as it used to be, but they must be overcome, and in doing this we must not underestimate them, we should not think they are stupid. They have made some changes, for example the massive use of drones; they are adapting, that is a fact.”
Kyrylo Budanov also shared his thoughts on the possibility that Russia will escalate if Ukraine is supplied with new types of weapons, saying, "What escalation are we talking about if absolutely all types of weapons are used; from submarines to strategic bombers? We need to change the logic: not everything depends on the Russian Federation, some things also depend on us in this respect."
When questioned about whether he believes the recent strikes in Moscow and other parts of Russia are having an effect on the morale of Russian citizens, Lieutenant General Budanov said, “I believe it has a sobering effect, but not a massive effect yet – we see some slight moves - panic moves – for example Russian insurance companies providing insurance against civilian attacks – a sign of panic. Another example, some chance visitations of flying objects towards Moscow have contributed to the disruption of civil aviation, and flights have been disrupted. As a result, much more money is being traded between insurance companies and airlines. These problems will mount up and affect people – we hope there will be kitchen conversations about that.”
In response to a final question from Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden (2006-2014), Prime Minister of Sweden (1991-1994), Member YES Board, about whether he had ever seen the new ‘super tank’ Russia had launched to great fanfare, the Lieutenant General replied, “No we have not seen one of these. T14s, T90s, are burning. Everything is burning, there are no unbeatable weapons here.”
