Latvian intelligence has issued an official warning that Russia is planning and actively preparing hybrid strikes against NATO countries on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
According to statements from the security service, Moscow currently lacks sufficient capability and is not ready to conduct a conventional full-scale war against NATO. However, the Kremlin may make a fatal miscalculation due to the deep information isolation of President Vladimir Putin, reports Fox News Digital.
Intelligence officers emphasize that the main goal of the planned Russian hybrid attacks—which include targeted missile strikes, drone incursions, and other aggressive provocations against Poland and the Baltic states—is to exert strong psychological and military pressure on Western allies in order to force them to completely stop providing military and political support to Ukraine.
According to Latvian analysts, the greatest danger at present is the risk of miscalculation by the Kremlin. Because Russia’s state and military institutions are under strict censorship, Putin is reportedly being presented only with a positive version of reality that he wants to hear. This creates an extremely dangerous feedback loop, depriving the isolated Russian leader of the ability to make decisions based on objective operational conditions, significantly increasing the risk of irrational actions and misjudgment of the West’s resolve.
The Latvian assessment fully aligns with concerns expressed by the Polish leadership. Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Marcin Bosacki previously stated that Russia’s hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank is already in full swing, pointing to political assassinations, drone reconnaissance activity, attacks on critical infrastructure, including a large-scale cyberattack aimed at cutting electricity in parts of Poland. Ambassador Krzysztof Ołendzki also added that Moscow and Minsk have turned illegal migration at the Belarusian border into a weapon.
At the same time, Latvia’s State Security Service published a special report describing in detail how Russia is simultaneously conducting what is known as legal warfare against the West. By using manipulative international lawsuits, Moscow is attempting to create legal justifications for future hybrid operations. In particular, Russian experts have studied Iran’s experience of challenging U.S. sanctions at the International Court of Justice and prepared a similar official complaint against the Baltic states, accusing them of discrimination against Russian-speaking citizens based on fabricated evidence.
The intelligence service draws direct parallels with Kremlin manipulation prior to the invasion of Ukraine, when narratives about protecting residents of Donbas were used to justify aggression. Latvian security services note that Moscow mistakenly perceives Baltic governments as detached from their populations and controlled by pro-American elites, and this distorted perception is a source of serious concern.
Despite public statements by Russian authorities about full resilience to external pressure, internal classified assessments in Russia itself indicate a strong destructive impact of Western sanctions. Latvian intelligence stresses that while the restrictions do not change Vladimir Putin’s mindset, they are rapidly draining the country’s financial resources, turning its war economy into a collapsing house of cards and reducing its ability to fund military spending, recruit soldiers, and pressure businesses.
The security service called for strengthening international sanctions pressure as the only viable mechanism to compel Russia toward a just peace.
In conclusion, Latvian intelligence stated that there is currently no direct military threat of a full-scale invasion against Latvia, as even in the event of an immediate end to hostilities in Ukraine, Russia would need three to five years to rebuild its regular army. Therefore, current concerns are focused specifically on planned Russian hybrid strikes and provocations using missiles and drones.
