So far, everything is "within the framework of pathology." That is, not according to plan (since we’re not the ones making that plan), but within expectations. The noise effects are at a high level. Therefore, we focus on the facts and do our part.
1. Reasonable people tend to treat numbers as data reflecting reality, to rely on them when making decisions. However, in political culture, which we still need to grow into, numbers are not a reflection of reality. A number is a political slogan that helps achieve political goals. It’s easier for people to perceive it this way – so they’re given simplicity.
The KMIS (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology) released data showing that President Zelensky’s trust rating is 57%, with a trust/distrust balance of +20%. Moreover, in two months, the balance has improved by 7%. I’m sure that in democratic countries, only a few leaders have +20%. Even Trump is closer to +4%.
Trump also occasionally announces figures regarding US aid, with a variance of 300 billion. For an ordinary person, whether it’s 200 billion or 500 billion – it’s incomprehensible. It’s intangible. But 500 sounds more appealing. However, if we look at the numbers from the Kiel Institute or even the Pentagon, the total amount of DECLARED US aid is considerably lower, and the actual aid provided is even less.
It would be interesting to see which globally renowned media outlets simply give the real numbers. This would be another lesson in applied democracy and standards
In conclusion, when the EU threatens to allocate 700 billion for defense, or when Trump talks in terms of hundreds of billions – these are slogans of the same type. Their goal is to impress people and influence behavior.
2. What really matters. Today, General Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv. In his comment, he emphasized that his task is to listen and pass on information to Trump for decision-making.
I can’t prove it, but I’m ready to make a reasonable assumption: ahead of Munich, an informational operation was conducted against Kellogg – and indirectly against Ukraine.
Remember. A series of complimentary publications suddenly appeared in Western media, stating that Kellogg had visited Ukraine during the war, understands the context, and his daughter is doing great work, including in Kharkiv. This was partly picked up in Ukraine. Because, well, it’s true and it’s good!
The goal of this campaign is to plant doubts about Kellogg’s objectivity, to create the appearance that he is “pro-Ukrainian.” Therefore, his judgments cannot be fully trusted. However, there is no evidence of "pro-Ukrainian" views in the sense that distorted information would be delivered.
Kellogg’s authority is indeed very high, and his ability for objective assessments has never been contested anywhere by anyone. Therefore, they act not through facts, but through creating a perception in order to reduce his influence.
We can only guess who initiated it – whether it’s the Russians or a consequence of internal political struggles among groups around Trump. But there is a clear tendency to weaken the Ukrainian track and strengthen the Russian one.
3. The overall mood of Trump and his allies proves that the main goal is to strengthen internal positions and weaken political opponents before the counterattack in the US begins. This will take a few months.
By summer, the Democrats will pull back and regroup, the population will want to see real results, and a different kind of political process will start. This is where the conflict lies.
Trump needs a quick result that looks like a victory within the US and lays the groundwork for at least a 4-year term. The Russians don’t need a quick result yet, they can drag it out and demand the maximum. We are interested in the quickest possible end to deaths and destruction, but not at the cost of even greater deaths and destruction later on. Europe is psychologically horrified and technically incapacitated until the end of March due to elections in Germany. China is picking up the falling fruits.
In other words, we need to calmly focus on the main issue – strengthening the army and defense in general. I agree with those who say we need to improve the quality of management. As for the methods – that’s another issue. Because first, we need to fix the basic immunity settings that were deliberately broken.
