The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the U.S. Department of Defense has published a new forecast — the 2025 Global Threat Assessment for the United States.
The document contains a lot of interesting information, although I won’t say anything surprised me.
I will briefly go through it with an emphasis on Ukraine.
Main threats to the USA:
Four key adversaries:
- China,
- Russia,
- Iran,
- North Korea deepen cooperation against the USA.
Technological threats:
- China is proposed as a source for cyberattacks on critical US infrastructure.
- Russia is developing a satellite with a nuclear device (a threat to thousands of satellites).
- Competition in AI, quantum technologies, microelectronics.
Missile threats to US territory:
- China: 400 ICBMs (up from 350), nuclear arsenal over 1,000 warheads by 2030.
- North Korea: ICBMs capable of reaching the continental US.
- Russia: about 1,550 strategic warheads.
Threats to the US:
- Terrorist attacks (New Orleans, January 1: 14 dead by ISIS).
- Drug trafficking: over 86,000 Americans died from fentanyl in 2024.
- Cheap UAVs threaten critical infrastructure.
Forecasts for Ukraine:
Negative scenario (without Western aid) –
the battlefield will likely slowly tilt in Russia’s favor in 2025.
The cost of war for Russia:
- 700,000+ total Russian military losses
- 170,000+ dead (only ground forces)
- 10,000+ destroyed equipment units
- 3,000+ tanks lost
Current Russian goals:
- Capture parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions
- Expel Ukrainian Armed Forces from Kursk region (10,000+ North Korean soldiers assist Russia)
- Destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure
Russian strategy:
- “Strategy of attrition until 2025” – degradation of Ukraine’s ability and will to resist
Moscow’s negotiating position:
- Ukrainian neutrality (ban on NATO)
- Control over the size of Ukrainian Armed Forces
- Territorial concessions (4 regions)
Russia’s capabilities:
- $150 billion defense budget in 2025 (+19%)
- Moscow is “comfortable with the current cost of slow progress”
- BUT: Russia’s conventional forces are degraded by at least 3 years
Global consequences:
Alliances of adversaries:
- North Korea supplied Russia with millions of shells + 12,000 soldiers
- Iran supplies drones and missiles to Russia
- China legitimizes Russia’s actions, avoiding direct military aid
Expansion of conflicts:
- Houthis: 200 attacks on commercial ships, -70% transit through Red Sea
- Iran conducted direct missile strikes on Israel (300 rockets in April, 200 in October)
Conclusions:
- Without sustainable Western support, the battlefield in Ukraine will likely slowly tilt in Russia’s favor, strengthening authoritarian regimes worldwide.
- We can only rely on ourselves and somewhat on Europeans.
- And if we are the main point of our support, it is time to introduce principles of military economics and concentrate efforts on doubling or tripling Ukraine’s war production volume, focusing mainly on long-range strike weapons and robotic systems of all types.
