No matter how the war concludes, Moscow is expected to persist in advancing its confrontational agenda. While there is currently no immediate military danger to neighboring states, the potential for a new armed conflict in the medium term remains significant unless the Kremlin shifts its hostile stance. Moldova, Georgia, and potentially Armenia are identified as the most at risk, according to the Bulgarian Defence Intelligence Service’s (DIS) annual assessment of global and regional security developments in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as published on the Council of Ministers' official website.
The report highlights that both parties are primarily focused on enduring longer than their opponent. Indications of exhaustion on the battlefield are already emerging, and preliminary overtures toward peace negotiations have begun.
According to DIS, President Vladimir Putin is likely to pursue talks with a central aim: securing lasting legal assurances for Russia’s strategic interests, particularly preserving its influence across former Soviet territories. Ukraine, the report suggests, would be relegated to a subordinate role—stripped of autonomy, identity, and independent governance or defense capabilities.
The intelligence assessment further identifies Russia as the leading force of instability in the international arena. Putin’s re-election has reinforced centralized control and the Kremlin’s reliance on power politics. Externally, Russia has stepped up its hybrid tactics, aiming to deepen rifts within the Euro-Atlantic alliance and sway political sentiment across Europe, the report states.
Additionally, Russia continues to limit access to the Black Sea for maritime and air navigation by designating large areas as hazardous for extended durations—despite the constrained operational reach of its navy. The presence of naval mines, unexploded ordnance, and remote-controlled or unmanned devices continues to pose significant risks in the region, the document notes.
The DIS also points to lingering instability in the Western Balkans, despite public commitments by regional governments to advance their EU integration paths.
Turning to developments in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Africa, the report anticipates continued migratory pressure on Bulgaria. While the intensity may decrease slightly compared to the previous year, national security threats tied to irregular migration are expected to persist. The primary concern remains the potential infiltration of extremists or individuals linked to pro-Iranian factions—especially members of Hezbollah or Shiite militias from Iraq.
Throughout 2024, the global security landscape has seen rising militarization, the widening of existing conflicts, and a decline in the effectiveness of international legal mechanisms. Cyberspace and information channels have increasingly been weaponized to influence public perception and pursue strategic goals. Attacks on aviation, shipping, energy systems, and vital infrastructure through hybrid means have become more frequent, the report concludes.
The DIS also recommends expanding its workforce, emphasizing that greater personnel capacity is crucial for meeting operational demands and sustaining core capabilities.
