If the war against Ukraine ends or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in approximately five years.
This is reported by the Danish Defence Intelligence Agency in its new threat assessment, according to DR.
It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.
Among the reasons, intelligence sources cite that, alongside its war against Ukraine, Russia has begun a "major overhaul and reform of its armed forces."
Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly evolved from recovery to "intensified military buildup aimed at waging war against NATO."
The threat assessment indicates that Russia has already increased its capacity to modernize military equipment and significantly boosted its military production.
According to the Danish intelligence assessment, Russia is already capable of freeing up resources for its armament against NATO, "not least due to the financial and material support it receives externally."
There is the direct war on the battlefield, and then there is hybrid warfare, including espionage, shadow fleets, cable damage, and everything in between.
"Russia is a frequent user of these tactics and has a higher risk tolerance here", according to the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE).
The reason is that Russia likely does not believe these hybrid methods risk triggering NATO's Article 5, the so-called "musketter oath," which states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all NATO members.
Russia’s use of hybrid methods against Western countries could also play a significant role in the Arctic, according to FE.
The agency noted that if hostilities in Ukraine cease, and NATO does not rearm at a sufficient pace, Russia could be capable of waging a local war against one of its neighboring countries in about six months.
In approximately two years, it will pose a real threat to one or several NATO countries, meaning it will be ready for a regional war against several nations in the Baltic Sea region.
And for a large-scale war on the European continent, in which the United States would not be involved, Russia could be prepared in about five years.
