DGAP report: NATO has 5-9 years to prepare for a Russian attack

Russia, with its imperial ambitions, poses the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries. After the end of intense fighting in Ukraine, Moscow will need six to ten years to rebuild its forces. Within this period, Germany and NATO must enable their forces for deterrence and, if necessary, for combat against Russia. Only in this way can they reduce the risk of another war in Europe.

In a study by the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), it is stated that:

During the war with Ukraine, Russia shifted its defense industry to a wartime economy, and despite significant losses in equipment and manpower, its military potential remains very high.

If Russia manages to freeze the war in Ukraine, it will give them time to rebuild their ground forces. In a protracted positional war, Russia has an advantage, and Ukraine can succeed only by delivering a breakthrough strike. To achieve this, it needs to receive the latest weapons from the West.

A possible reason for the war is seen as a potential Russian attack on the Baltic countries.

High Motivation

President Vladimir Putin has long had the motivation to restore the size of Russia and push back the influence of NATO and the EU. These goals have been repeatedly described by him and other key officials. Their historical conceptual categories are built on analogies to the imperial Tsarist Empire and the Stalin-era Soviet Union. Accordingly, Russia continues beyond its borders—wherever Russians have ever lived or where the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union ruled. Putin considers the borders established after the collapse of the Soviet Union as non-binding. Countries like Poland and the Baltic states, which were once part of Russia or the Soviet Union, are now part of NATO.

Putin's ideology and historical understanding have already justified wars in Chechnya and Georgia. The reintegration of Belarus into the Russian Empire is provided for in the Russian constitution and is currently underway. In 2014, Putin began his war in Ukraine. Although Moscow has failed to achieve all its war goals to this day, it has escalated it into the largest war in Europe in 75 years. Moscow has also repeatedly threatened individual NATO states and NATO as a whole with the use of nuclear weapons.

Experts refer to sources in military circles and German intelligence services