This article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-November 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the information and analytical center "Experts Club," provides an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and globally. The article covers aspects such as GDP dynamics, inflation, unemployment, foreign trade, and Ukraine's public debt, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine's economy in 2024 showed moderate growth despite the ongoing challenges related to the war and external economic factors. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the country’s GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year for the period from January to October 2024. In October, the growth rate was 1.3% year-on-year. The main drivers of growth were construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
However, inflation remains a significant issue for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, up from 8.6% in September. Consumer prices increased by 1.4% in December compared to November, when they had risen by 1.9%.
"Inflation is putting a noticeable strain on households and businesses. Combating price pressure requires well-thought-out steps in monetary, credit, and fiscal policy," emphasized Urakin.
The negative trade balance for goods from January to November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $25.239 billion.
"This indicates high imports and insufficient export growth. It is essential to strengthen support for exporters and develop strategically important industries to improve the trade balance," said Maxim Urakin.
Ukraine’s international reserves grew by $3.863 billion or 9.7% in December, reaching an estimated $43.788 billion by January 1, 2025.
"The growth of reserves is due to currency inflows from international partners, which in December exceeded the net currency sales by the National Bank and the country’s external debt payments," noted Urakin.
Global Economy
Globally, economic activity remains uneven. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, global economic growth in 2024 will be 3.1%. However, geopolitical instability, high interest rates, and slower growth in key economies continue to put pressure on prospects.
The U.S. economy shows stable growth, driven by strong domestic demand. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country's GDP grew by 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, supported by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The unemployment rate remains at 3.6%, indicating stability in the labor market. However, inflation, although reduced from its peak, remains at 3.9% on a year-on-year basis.
"The U.S. economy remains a driver of global growth, but high interest rates and reduced government spending could slow its pace in 2025," Urakin noted.
The European Union economy is showing weak growth. The 2024 growth forecast has been revised down to 0.9%, and for the Eurozone, to 0.8%. Germany, the region’s largest economy, is under pressure due to weakness in the industrial sector, with production declining by 1.2% year-on-year. Inflation in the Eurozone has slowed to 4.2%, allowing the European Central Bank to consider easing monetary policy in 2025.
"The EU economy is facing several challenges, including the energy crisis and weakening external demand. These factors limit the potential for recovery," Urakin emphasized.
India continues to demonstrate stable growth, remaining one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP will grow by 7% in 2024. The main drivers of growth are the IT sector, industrial production, and agriculture. Inflation remains under control at 5.2%, allowing the Reserve Bank of India to maintain its key interest rate unchanged.
"India is strengthening its position as a global economic leader. Its stable growth and reforms in key sectors continue to attract significant investment," Urakin said.
China's economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the full-year forecast was downgraded to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector. Corporate debt problems and slower export growth continue to pressure the economy.
"China faces challenges that could limit its role in global recovery. However, the measures taken to support the economy should reduce these risks," Urakin added.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in 2024 present a mixed picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and imbalances in foreign trade. The global economy also feels the pressure of numerous uncertainties.
"It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only sustainable development in key industries can ensure long-term economic stability," Maxim Urakin concluded.
For more details on Ukraine's foreign trade in 2024, you can watch the video here: Video Link
