From March 1–20, 2025, Russia's coal exports to China via sea decreased by 49% compared to 2024. The average weekly shipment volume in March was 251,000 tons, down from 534,000 tons in 2024.
The reasons for this decline include low consumer activity and slowed economic growth in China, as well as significant coal stockpiles in Chinese ports.
Despite efforts, Russia will not be able to compensate for the loss of the Chinese market by supplying other Indo-Pacific countries, as coal shipments to those regions have also fallen. Since the start of 2025, Russian coal companies have shipped 5.8 million tons of coal to Asian markets, with 36% going to China, 25% to India, and 19% to South Korea. Smaller quantities went to Taiwan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, while 1% went to Indonesia.
Some Russian coal companies have halted shipments to China due to losses caused by reduced revenue.
Forecasts from the Central Asian Energy Unit indicate that Russia's coal export volumes will continue to decline throughout 2025, impacting the profitability of coal companies and regional budgets. This is likely to lead to a need for state support for the coal industry, increasing the burden on the federal budget and forcing cuts in social spending.
