Russia is planning a potential military confrontation with the West, stated Bruno Kahl, head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), as reported by Zeit.
According to Kahl, Moscow may prepare to attack NATO territories by the end of the decade.
Speaking at an event held by the German Society for Foreign Policy in Berlin, Kahl noted that Russia is focused on strengthening its military capabilities and views limited actions against NATO as a possible scenario. Such actions could aim to undermine the principles of collective defense within the alliance, as outlined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
“If Russia decides to launch a military attack on a NATO member, and the other countries in the alliance do not respond properly, it could lead to the collapse of the Western alliance,” Kahl warned.
Kahl outlined several possible actions Russia might take. Among them are an attack on the Arctic island of Svalbard or interference in the Baltic States under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking populations. He emphasized that such actions could be intended to test NATO’s readiness to defend its members.
Although German intelligence does not detect specific signs of Russia preparing for military aggression in the near future, Kahl pointed to an increasing risk of conflict in the long term.
According to BND, Russian officials are skeptical about whether NATO’s Article 5 would be effectively applied in the event of an attack on one of the alliance’s members. This uncertainty could push Moscow to take actions aimed at testing the unity of Western countries.
Kahl emphasized that the risk of military confrontation will rise if such views continue to dominate Russia’s political leadership.
