The strike on Engels today was a significant demonstration, not just because it houses the largest base for strategic aviation, along with storage for aviation fuel and ammunition for combat flights, but for another reason as well.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost 1,038 air defense systems, either destroyed, damaged, or captured. Currently, Russia’s air defense category is the least replenishable. This is due to the fact that the production of air defense systems in Russia is limited to just a few units per month, with recovery efforts similarly constrained. While Russia loses an average of 30 air defense systems each month, it can only produce or restore a few.
At present, Russia is facing a critical shortage of air defense systems! But this is just part of the explanation.
Neither the USSR nor Russia have ever been able to fully cover their airspace. In both eras, some areas had well-established air defense systems, some were less fortified, and others were simply gaps—vast stretches of territory with little to no protection.
From 2022 to 2023, Moscow and Crimea were considered the most defended areas. However, there were also other strong regions, such as Saratov, which traditionally had a solid air defense system. But recently, there have been repeated reports of export air defense systems being stationed in Russian regions, indicating that these systems were either reassigned or even bought to compensate for the shortage of air defense systems.
Just recently, I published a post analyzing a proud propaganda report by Russian media on air defense in the Moscow region, where a unique Arctic "Pantsir-SA" system, designed for the harsh Arctic conditions, was stationed to defend Moscow. What happened here?
However, let’s focus not on Moscow, but on Saratov, a key region that has been struck before and has now been hit again. Denying the success of this strike would be foolish. Did fragments fall? Seriously?
Ukraine continues to methodically deplete Russia’s air defense systems while also striking critical targets. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, on the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration, has failed to demonstrate anything convincing to the 47th President of the United States, hoping to negotiate instead of being pressured. Russia failed in Kursk, and the strike on Engels demonstrated the ineffectiveness of Russia's operational-tactical capabilities in the combat zone.
Russia does not seem to be entering 2025 with much confidence, even though it had hoped to issue ultimatums and demands.
However, based on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statements about the production of strike drones and missiles, Ukraine has yet to fully engage in attacks on Russia. What we've seen so far has just been preparation, so to speak—softening up the meat before grilling it.
