Alexey Aresovich in the latest interview with the independent journalist, writer, TV and radio host, Yulia Latynina, spoke about Putin's immediate plans, as well as whether Moscow is capable of open conflict with NATO
"Putin's plan, from my point of view, looks like this. He (Putin) will conduct elections now. Before the elections, he will try to take Avdiivka as a mini-prize. Then a large-scale purge will begin, meaning the cleansing of the Russian elite. He has long wanted to trim down the inflated leadership. He will purge them, and this will be the key task. During this time, there may be a pause or lull on the front. At the same time, he will create conditions to enhance the combat readiness of the Russian army. Primarily, it will be numerical because a high-quality army is either exhausted or requires much more time for preparation; they will need to acquire new equipment, tanks, etc.
He will try to accumulate and achieve yet another significant result, for instance, to take Kupyansk or something else by the NATO summit in Washington.
The most substantial results he will try to achieve by September, meaning the start of the active phase of the US election campaign.
His main task is twofold: firstly, to undermine the West's belief that there is a need to help Ukraine because it is still "slowly but surely losing." The second task, I don't know if he will resolve it or not, is provocations in the Baltic countries or Poland.
From my point of view, Putin's plan before Trump's election should be as follows. To demonstrate that NATO is not an effective mechanism at all. For example, that a NATO country's territory is attacked, and NATO cannot defend it, cannot invoke Article 5, and is ineffective. This means a sharp and very severe political crisis in Europe and NATO, almost guaranteeing Trump's victory and the victory of isolationist Republicans. It means a radical breakdown of the existing paradigm in Europe because after heated debates about whether to send Portuguese battalions to defend the distant Baltics, which none of them can point to on the map, many European countries and their leaders will prefer to switch to direct relations with Moscow, like Orban or Fico.
And that's it – the end of the EU and NATO.
Now the question is, is he (Putin) ready to provoke NATO? I think the plan is precisely that. Whether he will go for it or not will probably depend on internal purges in Russia. If they don't go for it, Russia will create crisis after crisis on the Ukrainian front, closer to the active phase of the American campaign."
