"Russia has highly likely cancelled Exercise ZAPAD (‘West’) 23, its planned ‘joint strategic exercise’ (JSE) and major annual event intended to be the culmination of the military’s training year. The exercise should have taken place in September 2023."
It's noted that since 2010, Russia has followed a four-year rotation cycle for these exercises throughout the country. However, since 2021, Russia has been placing them near its western borders at least once every two years, as its priority is to counter what it perceives as a threat from NATO. Thus, 'Zapad-21' became the largest Russian exercises since Soviet times.
"The Russian military’s under-performance in Ukraine has highlighted how JSEs have had limited training value and have largely been for show. Russia has likely cancelled ZAPAD 23 because too few troops and equipment are available," intelligence sources highlight.
As stated in the report, the Russian leadership may also fear internal criticism if they were to conduct another large-scale exercise during the ongoing war.
