Military expert David Gendelman discussed the prospects of a ground operation in the Gaza Strip
"It is important to emphasize that there is no official statement regarding a ground operation in Gaza yet, but forces have been deployed, and preparations are mostly completed to some extent. How we perceive this operation depends on the objectives set for the army and specific orders because there are several operational plans of different levels, including complete capture and clearance of the Gaza sector. Theoretically, if we consider the option of full capture and clearance, it would require a minimum of four divisions in terms of combat and numerical composition, with estimated timelines for capture according to the plans being several weeks, followed by several weeks for clearance.
Hamas has built a robust defense system during its years in power in Gaza, which includes not only surface fortifications but an entire underground city, consisting of an extensive network of tunnels. These tunnels serve for the movement of militants, as well as for underground command centers, observation posts, ammunition depots, and other purposes. These tunnels can support autonomous living for extended periods, with militants emerging only when needed for combat. This presents an additional complicating factor, alongside conventional challenges such as heavily mined tank-dangerous areas, booby traps, combined engineering obstacles, ambushes with pre-equipped concealed firing points, both on the surface and underground, as well as surveillance tools, mortars, anti-tank guided missiles, man-portable air-defense systems, drones, etc. Additionally, there is a significant rocket arsenal, primarily intended for targeting Israel rather than for use within Gaza. In total, there are up to 40,000 Hamas militants, up to 15,000 from the Islamic Jihad, along with several thousand militants from other armed groups, and all these elements need to be dealt with collectively. There are operational plans in place to address all these challenges. As is typical, these operations take place in densely built-up areas. It's clear that this will not be easy. Projected Israeli military casualties could be several hundred individuals.
Given that the Gaza Strip has an area of 365 square kilometers and a population of 2 million people, it presents a significant challenge. Even if military operations are conducted in stages, it remains a considerable problem, especially considering the existence of the underground city. The Israeli army does have specialized units for underground warfare, but due to the physical constraints, it is clear that this will be difficult. However, difficult does not mean impossible. It depends on the orders given by the government, and the army will carry out those orders.
If the goal is to completely destroy Hamas, it cannot be achieved from the air alone. Significant damage can be inflicted, but the underground city, for instance, cannot be destroyed solely through missile and aerial strikes unless nuclear weapons are used or the entire surface of Gaza is wiped out. We have witnessed this in previous rounds of escalation against Gaza. Powerful strikes cause significant damage to the military and other capabilities, but there is also a political aspect alongside the military one. Israeli society currently demands a strong and dignified response to what has happened. Despite the losses, a significant portion will view the absence of a ground operation negatively because it may appear as if Israel did not engage in a full-fledged war and is still restraining itself despite the circumstances.
Hence, we come back to the point of what objective the government sets for the army. Even if such a decision is made, it hasn't been officially announced. Only a vague statement about delivering a powerful blow to Hamas's military capabilities has been mentioned. All other formulations, such as Gaza remembering this for 50 years and us reshaping the Middle East, remain highly abstract. Therefore, we'll need to wait for the actual orders and actions to unfold."
