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Foreign Intelligence Service: A collapse is expected in Russia’s passenger air transportation market

Foreign Intelligence Service: A collapse is expected in Russia’s passenger air transportation market
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The crisis in Russia’s passenger aviation industry is deepening. Western sanctions have barred Russian airlines from accessing Boeing and Airbus international maintenance centers. As a result, “parallel imports” have raised aircraft maintenance costs by 38%. Currently, 50% of Russia’s Airbus fleet is grounded. At S7 Airlines alone, 31 out of 39 Airbus A320/321 aircraft are no longer flying.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service.

Since the beginning of 2025, Russian airports have suspended operations 455 times and diverted aircraft to alternate airfields 736 times. Losses from the aviation collapse between July 5 and 7 alone exceeded $250 million.

Airlines are trying to recover losses by increasing ticket prices, which has backfired. This year, the average airfare to Russian vacation destinations has reached nearly $400—12.5% more than last year—and prices are expected to rise another 15%. As a result, passenger traffic for Russian airlines is projected to decline by at least 7%.

The Russian aircraft manufacturing sector is also in decline. The new, domestically produced aircraft promised on paper are still under development or testing—and have already exceeded planned costs by 45–70%.

Russia’s civil aviation industry is projected to lose between 50 and 100 aircraft annually. By 2027, the sector may face a full-scale collapse.

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