Given the high key interest rate and the worsening financial condition of borrowers, leading Russian banks including Sberbank and VTB are preparing for a wave of defaults at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026. The volume of overdue consumer loan debt has reached 1.5 trillion rubles — the highest level in six years.
VTB notes that the share of problematic loans has already reached 5% and may rise to 7% next year. At the annual shareholders’ meeting, Sberbank’s CEO Gref acknowledged that the situation in 2026 will be “difficult,” due to increasing restructuring pressure.
Despite official statements about banking system stability, signs of tension are evident. Investors are withdrawing funds from short-term assets: for the first time this year, bond mutual funds surpassed money market funds in inflows, receiving over $2.5 billion since the start of the year.
Another warning sign is the rise in financial fraud. VTB recorded a surge in schemes targeting borrowers unable to service their debts. Defaults affect both retail and corporate sectors, increasing the risk of a banking crisis.
In response, banks have intensified internal consultations and are increasing restructuring volumes. If this trend continues, selective support measures from the Central Bank — based on opaque criteria — are likely.
