How will Putin fly to Budapest?
There are many maps and speculations about who will grant airspace. But that’s not what really matters. In fact, the situation is devoid of irony and optimism. Hungary may have been suggested by Putin himself. It could also have been proposed by Trump, which would have given the Kremlin leader a burst of optimism.
What’s the essence? The precedent. Or, in the popular post-Soviet phrase: “It’s forbidden, but for me, it’s allowed.”
Formally, EU airspace is closed to Russian aircraft, including planes of the “Rossiya” airline squadron. Moreover, EU member states recognize the UN mandate, including Hungary.
However, the European Commission has already stated that “there is no direct prohibition for Putin or Lavrov,” and Hungary will not impose any arrest. The question is which country will grant airspace for the flight.
This is already proof of the “forbidden, but allowed” logic—naturally, for the “greater good,” which could be the start of peace negotiations or Trump’s request. In either case, Putin achieves his goals:
- A precedent where an exception is made to the sanctions list for the “importance of the process.”
- A precedent for violating agreed-upon policy, either “for the importance of the process” or because “a strong and important figure asked.”
- Evidence that the old world system doesn’t work—regarding the Rome Statute, UN mandates, and EU states’ obligations to each other under multilateral agreements.
- Success on the domestic front—a demonstration that “the West has bent.”
Now, let’s translate this into Ukrainian realities:
- Aggression – forbidden, but allowed?
- Territorial annexation – forbidden, but allowed?
- And finally, sanctions freezes on Russia’s terms – forbidden, but allowed?
In this case, Putin is looking either for an “important process” or a “request from a strong and important figure.” In the first case, recall my posts about the logic of strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, aiming for a fuel shortage in Europe and reviving the idea of U.S.-Russia gas trade via pipelines.
Also, the logic of freezes under the guise of an “important process” could apply to the U.S., either due to confrontation with China or the “threat of a third world war,” which Trump has mentioned.
I repeat: with Budapest, Putin fully understands what he is doing and the significance of the results. And here lies a starred task for our Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Zelenskyy’s team.
