Lithuanian intelligence has warned that in three to five years, Russia may accumulate enough military potential to begin limited military actions against NATO countries. However, experts believe that this time frame will not be sufficient to prepare for a full-scale war with the Alliance, as reported by LRT.
In a public report, the State Security Department and the Second Department of Operational Services stated that under certain conditions, Moscow could decide to use force, mistakenly believing that NATO would not be able to respond in time, while Russia could quickly localize the conflict and achieve its goals.
Experts note that the development of Russia’s armed forces will depend on the course of the war in Ukraine. If the need for resources on the front decreases, Moscow will be able to speed up the formation of new units and the buildup of reserves.
According to intelligence data, Russia is redeploying troops and equipment from various regions, including the Kaliningrad region, to carry out combat operations in Ukraine. However, despite some losses, the military contingent in this region is still capable of performing its main tasks.
Specialists also warn that Russia’s A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) system in the Baltic Sea, including air defense and anti-ship defense systems, remains operational. This means that while Russia will not be able to dominate the region in the event of a conflict, its capabilities will be sufficient to disrupt NATO operations.
