As part of the 25th wave of the national survey "Ukraine in wartime," the Sociological Group Rating conducted a separate study on the perception of threats and expectations for the winter of 2023-2024.
Expectations for Winter:
According to the expectations of half of the respondents, the overall situation in Ukraine this winter will remain unchanged (51%). Another 25% expect improvement, while 21% expect a worsening situation. More positive forecasts regarding the overall situation are prevalent among residents of central regions, older people, and the poor, with approximately one-third believing in improvement.
Ukrainians expect improvement in the situation on the front but anticipate a decline in the economy. Expectations regarding the situation on the front are the most optimistic, with 46% believing in improvement. In pessimistic expectations, the economy leads, with 34% of respondents anticipating deterioration in this area, and 43% expecting no changes. The energy sector is viewed as one that will either improve (17%) or remain unchanged (43%).
Young people aged 18-35 are relatively more critical in evaluating the situation on the front, with 38% believing in improvement, while among older people aged 51 and above, 52% are optimistic about positive developments.
Kyiv residents anticipate the most significant economic downturn (49%). Generally, the younger and more affluent respondents are, the higher the percentage of people with negative expectations regarding the economy.
However, when it comes to changes in personal circumstances this winter, poorer individuals have more negative expectations: among wealthy citizens, the percentage of those expecting a deterioration in their situation is 7%, while among the poor, it is 28%. Overall, 64% of respondents expect no changes in their personal situation, 16% anticipate improvement, and 17% foresee a deterioration.
Based on winter expectations, a cluster analysis was conducted, categorizing respondents into three groups: pessimists (25%), optimists (21%), and those undecided about their expectations (54%). The largest share of optimists is observed among residents of central regions, rural areas, and people aged 51 and above. Meanwhile, residents of Kyiv and the youth (18-35 years old) are the most pessimistic.
Comparative assessments of the potential energy supply situation this winter are positive: respondents believe the situation will be better than last year (41%) or the same as last year (49%). However, among residents of frontline and de-occupied territories, 54% in both categories believe that their electricity supply situation will be the same as last year, while central-western regions have more optimistic expectations, thinking that the situation will improve.
Winter Preparedness:
Almost 75% of Ukrainians prepared for possible energy supply problems in winter. Among the most popular preparation measures were buying flashlights and batteries, stocking up on food, purchasing batteries and generators, and preparing supplies of drinking water – each of these measures was taken by more than half of the respondents.
Residents of Kyiv and younger, more affluent individuals were more intensively prepared for energy supply problems. City residents more frequently bought flashlights and batteries and stocked up on drinking water, while rural residents more often purchased generators.
The intensity of preparation for energy supply problems is influenced by attitudes toward the difficulties Ukraine will face in winter: pessimists, anticipating challenges, put more effort into winter preparation than optimists.
72% of respondents indicated that there is a "Points of Invincibility" in their locality. However, in rural areas, nearly 40% of residents mentioned that their locality lacks a "Points of Invincibility." The highest number of such points is in Kyiv and on de-occupied and frontline territories. Among respondents with a "Points of Invincibility" in their locality, 13% used it last winter: 3% often and 10% rarely.
The majority of Ukrainians (74%) do not plan to leave their homes if there is no electricity for a week. However, nearly a quarter of Ukrainians in this situation plan to move elsewhere: 11% within the same locality, 8% to another locality, 3% to temporary accommodation (school, etc.), and 2% abroad. Movement is most often limited to the same locality where the respondent currently resides. Residents of Kyiv, urban residents in general, the more affluent, and the younger demographic are more willing to relocate.
