Main image: DeepState map
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to artificially inflate its claims of advance in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces seized at least 4,714 square kilometers across the theater between January 1 and September 25, 2025: 205 square kilometers in Luhansk region; 3,308 square kilometers in Donetsk region; 261 square kilometers in Zaporizhia region; 175 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk region; 542 square kilometers in Kharkiv region; and 223 square kilometers in Sumy region.
The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces seized 205 settlements in Ukraine during this time period. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized only 3,434 square kilometers since January 1: 151 square kilometers in Luhansk region; 2,481 square kilometers in Donetsk region; 248 square kilometers in Zaporizhia region; 96 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk region; 255 square kilometers in Kharkiv region; and 210 square kilometers in Sumy region.
ISW assesses that the Russian MoD is inflating its claimed advances by 36 percent in Luhansk region; 33 percent in Donetsk region; five percent in Zaporizhia region; 83 percent in Dnipropetrovsk region; 112 percent in Kharkiv region; and six percent in Sumy region.
The Russian MoD often inflates its territorial claims in order to shape Western thinking about Russia’s military capabilities and prospects for victory. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on August 30 that Russian forces had seized 3,500 square kilometers of territory and 149 settlements since March 2025, whereas ISW assessed at the time that Russian forces had gained only roughly 2,346 square kilometers since March 1.
The Russian MoD’s September 25 claims are a continuation of these wider efforts to use large amounts of false quantitative data to create the impression that Russian forces are advancing at a fast rate on the battlefield, even though Russian forces continue to advance at a slow foot pace. ISW also assesses that the Russian MoD has been leveraging footage showing Russian soldiers holding flags within specific settlements to claim that Russian forces had seized entire settlements.
The Russian footage only shows small group infiltration missions into areas where Russian forces are unable to secure enduring positions, however.
The Kremlin is attempting to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its original war goals on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners into conceding to Russian demands.
