OSINT researcher Clément Molin notes that over the past month Russian forces carried out 8,284 air-launched bomb strikes against Ukraine. He managed to map 49% of these strikes based on crater geolocation data.
The researcher emphasizes that aerial bombardment is a key element of Russian offensive tactics, alongside drones and artillery.
The number of Russian air strikes is increasing month by month, reaching a new record in June.
At the same time, the accuracy of air strikes has increased this year (by “hits,” Molin refers to strikes on forest belts, populated areas, and forests, rather than simply impacts in open fields where Ukrainian positions are unlikely to be present).
In 2025, strike accuracy was estimated at 10–30%, while in 2026 it is estimated that 40–90% of strikes land in areas where Ukrainian positions may be located.
The lowest accuracy is observed near Pokrovsk, likely due to the high concentration of Ukrainian electronic warfare systems in that direction.
Meanwhile, near Izyum and Lyman, Molin records a higher number of strikes and hits due to the heavily forested terrain.
The increase in air strikes is mainly concentrated in the Kharkiv region.
Near Vovchansk, Russian forces are clearly attempting to halt Ukrainian counterattacks, while near Kupiansk they are intensifying efforts in a new offensive toward the city.
However, the highest concentration of air strikes is currently recorded in the Huliaipole direction; based on this, Russian forces appear to be attempting advances between Orikhiv and Ternuvate.
In Donetsk region, the main Russian efforts are concentrated in the area between Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, while near Sloviansk many air strikes are focused around Mykolaivka.
