China's increasing presence in the Arctic as a partner of Russia poses potential threats to the United States and NATO allies. Experts from the American research organization RAND are studying how successfully Beijing and Moscow could form a partnership in the Arctic region and what factors may limit its development.
Several possible scenarios for cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic up to 2035 are considered, ranging from a comprehensive and productive partnership to potential rivalry and competition.
In one scenario, Russia would use Chinese investments to develop Arctic projects, while Beijing would benefit from the cooperation through access to minerals, fish, hydrocarbons, and other resources.
However, researchers note that China has interests in other regions of the world, which may not always align with Kremlin plans. Therefore, geopolitical competition could undermine the "limitless friendship" between the two countries and turn Arctic partners into rivals. Beijing may seek to protect its investments in the region by seeking collaboration with other countries, such as the United States, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Canada, and Iceland. Thus, China's interactions with these Western Arctic nations could ultimately define the real limits of Sino-Russian relations.
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RAND experts emphasize that China does not have natural influence in the Arctic and is interested in maintaining economic and scientific relations with all Arctic states. Therefore, Western countries' policies, focused on exploiting differences between Russia and China, could ultimately prove successful in shaping the Arctic's future.
