Richard Vereker has conducted new analysis on the losses of Russian MT-LBs, which is part of a broader effort by the OSINT community to account for remaining Russian reserves. This analysis is supported by groups including Jompy, HighMarsed, Covert Cabal, Oryx, and Warspotting. Key findings include:
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Losses Documented: Warspotting has recorded the loss of 1,095 MT-LBs, of which 1,024 were used as armored personnel carriers. MT-LB is the third most common type of Russian armored vehicle, after BMP-2 and T-72.
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Current Inventory: Recent satellite imagery shows that Russia has decommissioned 2,485 of the 2,966 MT-LBs stored in warehouses, leaving only 481, with at least 45 completely dismantled for parts. Given the reactivation rate of around a hundred per month, the remaining MT-LB stockpiles are expected to be depleted soon.
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Production Issues: Russia has only produced civilian variants of the MT-LB (for fire services and similar uses) in recent decades, with military production halted. While there is potential for resuming military production, output is unlikely to be high.
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Loss Ratio: MT-LB losses constitute 18% of all Russian infantry fighting vehicle losses and have remained relatively stable throughout the conflict.
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Statistical Anomalies: Vereker notes that the thin armor of the MT-LB might cause its losses to be underreported compared to more robust vehicles. Additionally, MT-LBs are often less visible in photos and videos compared to tanks and BMPs. Vereker also observes that images often focus on tanks and BMPs, with MT-LBs appearing mostly in the background.
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Stock Discrepancies: Based on the collected statistics, it was believed that before the full-scale war, the Russian military had 3,300 MT-LBs, with an additional 2,485 reactivated from storage and 1,095 lost. This raises doubts about whether 4,790 MT-LBs are still in active service. Vereker questions this number for several reasons:
- If Russia indeed had nearly 5,000 MT-LBs, they would likely avoid relying on improvised vehicles for assaults.
- Many losses recorded visually now may have occurred months or years ago, suggesting delays in reporting.
- The discrepancy between standard MT-LBs and the less-produced MT-LBVMK models is notable. Initially, MT-LBVMK models accounted for about 40% of MT-LB losses, but now they represent less than 5%. If 4,790 MT-LBs remained, there should be about 860 MT-LBVMK models, but they are nearly absent from front-line images.
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Conclusions: Vereker concludes that either the pre-war number of MT-LBs was significantly lower than the estimated 3,300, or the losses have been much higher, or both. He suggests that the latter is more likely.
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Future Implications: With the continued depletion of MT-LBs and other personnel carriers, Russia may increasingly rely on less conventional vehicles for assaults, such as motorcycles, golf carts, and improvised tanks.
