In February 2025, the total revenues of the Russian federal budget from oil and gas sales decreased by 18.5% compared to February 2024, amounting to $8.6 billion. For the period of January–February 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, oil and gas revenues declined by almost 4% to $17.4 billion.
This was reported by the Ukrainian Foreighn Intelligence Agency.
The decline in oil and gas revenues is due to the fall in prices for Russian oil. Specifically, the price of Urals oil, which is shipped from the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk, was about $57.97 and $58.32 per barrel at the end of February. Meanwhile, the Russian federal budget had anticipated $69.7 per barrel.
As a result, the Russian federal budget deficit in 2025 will significantly exceed the 0.5% of GDP planned by the Russian government and will amount to approximately 2 trillion Russian rubles in monetary terms, assuming current oil prices around $60 per barrel.
Factors that will affect further declines in oil prices:
- The decision by OPEC+ countries to begin their planned increase in oil production in April by 138,000 barrels per day. This increase will be the first since 2022.
- The imposition of tariffs by the United States on imports from Canada and Mexico, energy supplies from Canada, and products from China. These tariffs will slow down economic activity and demand for energy, leading to a decrease in oil prices.
- In the second quarter of 2025, Guyana will launch the first phase of the "Yellowtail" project, with a field capacity of 250,000 barrels per day.
The reduction in oil and gas revenues for the Kremlin and the potential increase in the budget deficit will lead to further ruble emission, inflationary pressure, and a contraction in the Russian economy.
