Real growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in May 2026 amounted to 0.9% compared to May 2025, indicating positive dynamics for the third consecutive month, according to data from the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
According to the Monthly Economic Monitoring published on the institute’s website, the GDP growth estimate for April was revised downward to 0.7% compared to the same period last year. The estimate for March remained unchanged at 0.8% year-on-year. In February, GDP contracted by 0.6% compared to February 2025, while in January the economy shrank by 1% year-on-year.
The IER reported that in May Ukraine imported 398 thousand MWh of electricity, which is 29% less than in April. Electricity exports increased 2.8 times compared to April, reaching 94 thousand MWh.
Improved access to electricity supported growth in the processing industry. The institute estimates real gross value added (GVA) in manufacturing increased by 2% compared to May 2025.
At the same time, extractive industries grew by 6% year-on-year as gas production continued to increase despite disruptions caused by Russian drone and missile strikes. Electricity production and gas distribution, according to the IER, decreased by 6.5% compared to May 2025. As of June 11, Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities held 6.95 billion cubic meters of natural gas (+18% compared to the previous month), with storage 22.8% full.
Real GVA in trade is estimated to have increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting higher demand.
The decline in real GVA in transport slowed to 4.2% from a low base last year, while construction GVA grew by around 5% compared to May 2025.
Regarding seaports, 35 million tons of cargo were handled from January to May 2026, and 3.12 million tons of grain were transported by rail, which is 5.8% more than in April and the highest monthly figure since the beginning of the year.
As previously reported, the Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that real GDP is now expected to grow by 2%, while the Budget Declaration is based on a lower estimate of 1.6%. The government forecast included in the 2026 state budget had previously projected 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev told Interfax-Ukraine that it has been revised downward without specifying a new figure.
The National Bank in April lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8%, while keeping next year’s forecast at 2.8% and expecting acceleration to 3.7% in 2028.
The IMF also worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth to 1.0–1.6%, compared to 2% in its April World Economic Outlook and 1.8–2.5% at the time of approving the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program in late February.
The EBRD lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.2%, while the World Bank reduced it to 1.2%.
Investment group ICU also downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to below 1% (0.8%) from a previous estimate of 1.2%.
