Ukraine's soybean exports in February increased to 382,000 tons, compared to 223,000 tons in January. This growth was driven by delays in shipments from Brazil, prompting importers to seek alternative sources to cover urgent supply needs.
According to Viktoriya Blazhko, head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri, Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, faced excessive rainfall in January, which slowed harvests and delayed the new crop's arrival to the market. These delays occurred in key producing regions, particularly São Paulo, Paraná, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, which are major suppliers to the Santos Terminal Station and Paranaguá Grain Terminal. As a result, ships had to wait longer for loading, despite initial schedules anticipating early shipments.
"These delays disrupted supplies to key importers, prompting Turkey and Egypt to turn to Ukraine to fill the gap," explained Blazhko.
Customs data showed that Ukraine's soybean exports to Turkey in February rose to 118,000 tons, up from 60,000 tons in January. Exports to Egypt increased to 81,000 tons from 42,000 tons the previous month. The Netherlands also increased its soybean imports from Ukraine, with about 32,000 tons in February compared to less than 1,000 tons in January.
"Weather conditions in Brazil are improving, harvest progress is picking up, and exports from Brazilian ports are accelerating. This is expected to intensify competition for Ukrainian soybeans in Turkey and Egypt starting in March," forecasts Blazhko.
At the same time, European demand for Ukrainian soybeans may rise. If Donald Trump announces tariffs on imports to the EU, European buyers will increasingly turn to Brazil and Ukraine for supply. The EU is the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, accounting for around 44% (1 million tons) of Ukraine's soybean exports from September 2024 to February 2025.
In the first half of the 2024/25 season, Ukraine exported 2.35 million tons of soybeans, leaving around 900,000 tons available for export until the end of the season.
