Ukrainian steel plants are forecasting a significant shortage of scrap metal in 2025 in the domestic market. Specifically, the demand from major market players to ensure metallurgical production in 2025 will amount to 1.75–1.8 million tons, according to Valentyn Makarenko, head of Interpipe Vtormet, during a meeting of the relevant association, UAWtormet.
Ivan Kovalevskyi, director of Metinvest-Resource, which supplies scrap metal to Metinvest enterprises, stated that this year the group expects an increase in domestic scrap consumption in Ukraine to 1.73 million tons and plans to use 580,000 tons of scrap itself.
At the same time, the head of UAWtormet, Volodymyr Bublej, reported that in 2025, enterprises involved in scrap collection in Ukraine will only be able to gather 1.45–1.65 million tons of raw material, which is 5-17% less compared to last year.
Moreover, of this amount, scrap collectors plan to export 350,000 tons (+20%). It is noted that in 2024, the supply of Ukrainian scrap to external markets increased by 60% compared to 2023, reaching 293,000 tons.
Therefore, according to Valentyn Makarenko, if the forecasted scrap export in 2025 amounts to 350,000–400,000 tons, the Ukrainian market will need to generate 2.2 million tons to meet the needs of steel mills.
"Scrap metal consumption, necessary for steel production, will increase this year. Therefore, there is a risk of not meeting the forecasted balance of scrap consumption, particularly due to insufficient collection volumes, the loss of additional territories that were sources of scrap metal, and 'catastrophic' issues with the reservation of industry workers," he emphasized.
Ivan Kovalevskyi shared that last year, Metinvest plants had to operate with wheels due to a shortage of raw materials.
"We covered the deficit with internal reserves, but for 2025, we no longer see such opportunities, as our reserves are not inexhaustible. In addition, there is currently a large shortage of personnel in the scrap collection industry due to the war and mobilization. Therefore, we foresee a scrap shortage in 2025," he concluded.
