Following Trump’s meetings with the leaders of Central Asian countries, I would note the following.
First, the media are actively circulating a quote from Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in which he allegedly said that Putin showed “impressive flexibility” by agreeing to a ceasefire in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions if Ukraine withdraws from the Donetsk region. The suggestion is that no further concessions should be expected because Putin would be unable to act against public opinion in Russia.
It is clear why the Kazakh leader makes such statements (regardless of Putin’s actual intentions). Kazakhstan shares a 7,000 km border with Russia. The country has not shied away from profiting from sanctions circumvention. However, it now declares a deepening of political and economic ties with the United States.
This ranges from previously concluded deals for American locomotives ($4.2 billion) to fresh agreements on tungsten and other mineral deposits (reported at $17+ billion). Additionally, there is the intention to join the “Abraham Accords” (which Hamas has already condemned).
It is particularly interesting that American locomotives could serve as the backbone for Chinese freight logistics along a route alternative to Russia.
All of this is already being viewed with jealousy in Russia, which is why verbal courtesies are used to soften the situation.
However, Tokayev and others must remember: Northern Kazakhstan remains peaceful Kazakh territory only because the Russian army is bogged down in Ukraine. Even rhetoric has its limits.
Though in the case of Trump, there are no limits: Tokayev called him a “great leader sent from above,” and the planet is lucky.
Second, following the Gulf monarchies, Japan, and South Korea, Trump announced another “space deal,” this time with Uzbekistan.
According to Trump, Uzbekistan is expected to invest $35 billion in the U.S. over the next three years, and another $100 billion over the next ten years—a total of $135 billion.
At the moment, this looks as “grandiose” as Europe’s purchases of U.S. hydrocarbons at $750 billion plus $600 billion in investments. The GDP of Uzbekistan is projected at $130 billion by the end of 2025. However, the country’s economy is growing, with a huge youth population. Ties with the U.S. could have a stimulating effect and contrast sharply with Russia. How many trillions are announced now is just part of the story.
Surely, in Russia, complaints will arise along the lines of: “If Tashkent has so much money, it should invest it in Russia, or we’ll expel all migrants!”
I’ve already quoted Lavrov: Russia is clearly concerned about attempts to “detach” the Caucasus and Central Asia, but has little to oppose this with besides direct threats…
Now let’s look at the bigger picture.
Sweden and Finland are in NATO. The Swedish Prime Minister has said plainly: the Baltic is our sea, and we need to move toward long-term containment of Moscow.
Moldova is trying to extricate itself. The signal about the closure of the “Russian House” fits into this pattern, though the issue of Transnistria remains unresolved.
The Caucasus has significantly loosened Russia’s grip. Aliyev recently announced that his army is moving to NATO standards.
Central Asia is economically and politically integrating into non-Russian projects, because Russia has little to offer—just weapons, military experience, and the usual rhetoric about malicious Anglo-Saxons. It can also threaten, but that only motivates countries to seek balance.
All of this is a direct consequence of events since February 2022. Putin’s strategic “genius” is blinding.
Another six months of war, as the Kremlin anticipates, could produce even more staggering results.
The Kremlin has already failed to simply transfer Lukoil’s foreign assets from one pocket to another in a single move. There could still be many surprises before spring.
Russians who are counting on anything after Putin need to hurry.
