The decline in Belarusian industry is deepening: over the first eight months of 2025, output fell by 0.8%, and July showed a sharp monthly drop of 3.5%.
The hardest hit were regions with oil-refining enterprises: in the Vitebsk region industrial production fell by 4.2%, and in the Homel region by 2.7%. Problems at Russian refineries did not create additional opportunities for Belarusian plants; they are cutting production due to difficulties selling fuel at a profitable price.
Sales difficulties are spreading to other sectors as well. The Belarusian government has admitted that goods which find no demand on the Russian market are difficult to redirect elsewhere. From January to July, exports to “distant arc” countries dropped by 10%, with trade with China falling significantly.
Additional risks have emerged after Poland closed its border with Belarus. Last year, one-third of Belarusian exports — $1.4 billion — went to the EU, and 64% of these shipments passed specifically through Poland.
Thus, Belarusian industry faces a simultaneous drop in demand on the Russian market and restricted access to the EU, which increases the country’s overall economic vulnerability.
