Although Russia continues to increase shipments of crude oil, sanctions and market restrictions are creating a persistent negative trend in its maritime exports. A significant portion of cargo remains at sea without being unloaded, while carriers increasingly use changes of destination ports and ship-to-ship operations to bypass restrictions.
The volume of “oil at sea” is rising: since the beginning of December 2025, about 180 million barrels of Russian crude oil have accumulated on tankers, 28% more than at the end of August, representing the highest level since 2022. At the same time, export revenues are falling: Urals prices in the Baltic region dropped to $41.16 per barrel, in the Black Sea to $38.28 per barrel, and ESPO fell to $52.36 per barrel.
Demand in Global South countries is also weakening. Following U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, several Chinese and Indian refineries have intensified tanker inspections, leading to delays and redirected shipments. Frequent route changes and operations via intermediaries are increasing sales difficulties.
Overloaded routes, oil stockpiles at sea, and rising risks for buyers indicate a structural deterioration in Russian export conditions. Logistics are becoming more expensive, reliance on the “shadow” fleet is increasing, and price pressure on Russian crude grades is expected to rise further, further limiting options to circumvent sanctions.
