The Russian Academy of Sciences has resumed work on a large-scale infrastructure project that involves partially redirecting the waters of the Ob River toward Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The initiative is presented as a tool to “stabilize water supply in southern Russia,” but in essence it is a modernized version of the Soviet-era plan to “reverse Siberian rivers.” That project was abandoned in 1986 due to high and unpredictable environmental risks.
Moscow seeks to reorient its influence in Central Asia, where its traditional leverage—primarily gas blackmail—no longer works. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are gas exporters focused mainly on the Chinese market, while the region’s economy is increasingly reliant on Chinese and Western capital. In these circumstances, Russia is turning to “water diplomacy,” effectively forming a new instrument of political pressure on post-Soviet states.
Financial estimates highlight the project’s scale: according to preliminary calculations, its cost starts at 100 billion dollars. But the strategic costs may be far greater when environmental consequences are taken into account. Redirecting water flows could cause desertification in some areas and waterlogging in others, destabilize hydrological systems, and accelerate the melting of Arctic glaciers. Disrupting Siberia’s water balance could trigger large-scale climatic shifts across much of Eurasia.
